With the 2024 US Presidential Election approaching, Donald Trump may become a major figure again in ushering changes in India’s relations with the US: expectations of strong trade and security enhancements.
Backed by a campaign slogan reiterating “MAGA” and “India Primero”, Trump’s candidacy makes a clear case for re-emphasizing bilateral ties with India, referring to his prior administration’s policy flip-flops and pledges to boost economic and strategic partnerships.
A Strengthened Trade Partnership
Under Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021, India-US trade relations grew significantly, with total bilateral trade volume almost reaching $150 billion in 2019. Trump’s administration sought to cut the trade deficit by pressing India to lower tariffs on American commodities while pushing for a better trade deal.
Priority was afforded energy exports, whereby the US was transformed into a key supplier of crude oil and liquefied natural gas to India, lessening India’s reliance on Middle East-er oil imports.
If Trump becomes President again in 2024, such a lineage might just continue, bringing greater pressure on India to open its market for American goods and services. The tone of the relationship would rather be one of collaboration than antagonism; seeking an expansion of trade agreements, technological transfer, and energy cooperation to spur mutual growth instead.
Security Ties: A Pillar of Cooperation
The significance of security in India-US relations cannot be downplayed, especially with the growing threat posed by China’s strategic encroachment in the Indo-Pacific region. Prior initiatives in the Trump administration, such as the IndoPacific Strategy, effectively portrayed India as a key player in countering China’s dominance in the region.
Hence, this led to the signing of further security agreements, such as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which has significantly improved military intelligence-sharing between the two nations.
Shared Vision on Geopolitical Issues
The possibility of deepening defense collaborations, including joint military exercises and new arms sales, is very high with a second Trump administration. With the acquisition of advanced U.S. systems like Apache helicopters and C-130J, India’s defensive hardware procurement points to a trend that may expand into new areas such as cybersecurity and space defense.
Trump’s brand of “America First” philosophy is likely to complement the strategic interests of India to enhance its military capabilities and counterbalance Chinese aggressive posturing.
A possible Trump 2.0 may reinforce India’s role as a strategic ally in dealing with regional security tasks, including Afghanistan and the Middle East. A tough stand against Pakistan’s support for terrorism taken during his first term aligned with Indian concerns about cross-border terrorism.
This alignment is expected to continue with the Trump administration exerting further pressure on Pakistan, thereby further strengthening India’s position on various international fora.
Moreover, as economic decoupling from China plays out, a geopolitically salutary vision whereby India becomes the bulwark of this initiative – a strategy to make the supply chain less dependent on Chinese manufacturing – will emerge.
Economic Impact and Mutual Gains
Drawing on his experience as a businessperson, Trump has in mind how best to promote India’s stance as a manufacturing hub, which will also contribute to Modi’s vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat.
Trump calling for “MAGA, India First” could compliment India and American industries. American companies might have wider markets in India, especially in areas of technology, defense, and energy. On the other hand, Indian businesses may have an easier time accessing the U.S. market, with new opportunities that arise in IT services, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.
