As voting for the 2025 Delhi assembly elections came to a close on February 5, the exit polls already envisioned a major change in the political landscape of the city.
Multiple agencies have projected the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will gain a majority in the 70-member assembly, thus ushering Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s hold on power to an end after a decade.
Scope of Exit Polls
As per exit polls released soon after the voting concluded, here are the seat predictions:
Chanakya Strategies: BJP: 39-44 seats; AAP: 25-28 seats; Congress: 2-3 seats.
P-Marq: BJP: 39-49 seats; AAP: 21-31 seats; Congress: 0-1 seat.
JVC: BJP: 39-45 seats; AAP: 22-31 seats; Congress: 0-2 seats.
People’s Pulse: NDA under BJP: 51-60 seats; AAP 10-19 seats; Congress: 0 seats.
The majority mark in the Delhi Assembly is 36 seats. If conveyed in truth and based on factual admissions, these forecasts would signal a huge jump for the BJP, from their 8 seats in the assembly elections of 2020, while AAP had commanded a majority with 62 seats.
AAP Counterstatement
Rejecting the exit poll projections, Aam Aadmi Party insists that such projections have underestimated it historically.
In an exclusive interview, AAP leader Reena Gupta stated, “This is my fourth election in Delhi, and you can check from previous elections, whether it was in 2013, 2015, the exit polls have always given the AAP fewer seats, and when actual results come, AAP gets bumper seats.”
AAP is hopeful that it can hang on for a while in a row due to its track record in education, health, and public services.
BJP Counterstatement
For the BJP, the exit polls resonate with their call for much-needed change. Ramesh Bidhuri, BJP candidate from Kalkaji, believes the aftermath signals success for the party.
He added that this success will be larger than such projections on account of the “Modi wave.” The party, in fact, projected themselves as a party championing several pertinent local issues, ranging from alleged corruption in the AAP government, lack of water supply, and pollution to improved general infrastructure and public services.
Congress’s Prospects
The Indian National Congress, failing to win any seats in the past two assembly elections, had nevertheless expected to stay in dire straits.
Most exit polls indicate minimal-or no-seats for the party, suggesting a persistent challenge in reviving its influence at the capital.
Voter Turnout and Key Contests
According to the Election Commission of India, Delhi had approximately 57.89% voter turnout. North East Delhi emerged the highest at 63.83%, while South East Delhi, at 53.77%, recorded the lowest.
Some notable contests were those in the New Delhi constituency, where former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was pitched against BJP’s Parvesh Verma and Congress’s Sandeep Dikshit, and, of course, that of Kalkaji, where the contest ran between AAP’s Atishi, Congress’s Alka Lamba, and BJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri.
Though exit polls provide some leads, their accuracy has varied in earlier elections. With the final vote count to be announced on February 8, it will be revealed whether the BJP will establish a historic comeback in Delhi after a gap of 27 years or whether AAP will hopefully catch up with the projected figure to secure their third consecutive term.
The fate of the national capital’s political canvas rests, pending the waiting game, finally coming to rest now-who will win?
